WASHINGTON -- Pro-Ukraine senators from both parties, unnerved by the upheaval in the House, say they want to move quickly to pass a yearlong aid package for the war-torn country that far exceeds the amount of aid requested by President Biden in August and would last through the 2024 election.
Biden requested $24 billion in additional aid in August, drawing opposition from many Republicans who have grown wary of further funding for the war. Now, supporters of Ukraine in the Senate are aiming to offer a much bigger and longer-term package -- with a price tag between $50 billion and $100 billion.
Many Pro-Ukraine senators say that passing a large package sufficient to carry Ukraine through the next U.S. election would send a strong message abroad that the chaos in the House won't affect America's long-term commitment to Ukraine as it struggles to push out invading Russian forces. Proponents also say it would be easier to win support for one big package versus several smaller packages, especially from Republicans under growing pressure from their party's voters to oppose further spending on the war.
"I want to be one and done," said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.). "I want to get them through next fighting season, through next year, so the Russians would realize this gets worse for them, not better."
But any future aid package is expected to meet resistance from the expanding ranks of Republicans who have grown frustrated by what they see as a lack of accountability for the funding already sent to Ukraine and who oppose pumping billions more into an overseas war effort instead of addressing pressing issues at home, such as border security.
It is unknown how the weekend attack on Israel by Palestinian militants might alter lawmakers' thinking on aid for Ukraine. The surprise Hamas assault sent shock waves through Washington and has already refocused U.S. attention on helping a key Middle East ally.
The ouster of Kevin McCarthy as House speaker further imperils future Ukraine funding. Even if the new speaker supports Ukraine aid, with a historically narrow margin of 221-212 he could lose no more than four GOP votes to advance most legislation, if all House Democrats vote no. Seeking help from Democrats to advance a bipartisan bill that included Ukraine aid could result in a motion to vacate the chair -- the same resolution to oust the speaker by majority vote that brought down McCarthy.
The uncertainty over whether Ukraine's largest donor will continue to fund the war in the same way has rattled European allies that take their cues from Washington in sending their own weapons to Kyiv and maintaining a unified front against Moscow.
The U.S. Congress has approved more than $100 billion in military, economic and humanitarian assistance since the start of Russia's invasion -- funding that European countries would struggle to match if the U.S. scaled back.
Pro-Ukraine senators said new aid would need to move sometime between when the Senate returns from recess on Oct. 16 and when the current stopgap spending bill is set to expire on Nov. 17. They have expressed cautious optimism over pursuing a larger package.
"A lot of us feel like there is some logic there: Rather than try to do this in small bites that may get harder and harder and harder, let's just be candid with people about what the longer term need is and see if we can do it," said Sen. Tim Kaine (D., Va.). "We do think we've got the votes in both houses to do it."
At least some Republicans in the House favor this approach. Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he and others who support Ukraine, along with then-Speaker McCarthy, had met with White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan. They told him they thought a year of funding would make more sense, "to give the Ukrainians a sense of confidence, but also from a political standpoint not to take this vote every three months."
The National Security Council didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
But McCaul said everything in the House is on hold after McCarthy's removal. "I'm not sure who the next speaker is going to be and where they're going to be on this issue," he said.
Several senators and aides interviewed by The Wall Street Journal put the total amount needed to fund Ukraine through next year's U.S. elections between $50 billion and $100 billion.
"It is very important that if we all agree on the number, that we have a process that leads to a successful result," said Sen. Ben Cardin (D., Md.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He said it could move as part of spending legislation, a continuing resolution to keep the government open or as a stand-alone bill.
Graham has suggested $60 billion to $70 billion as the amount needed for Ukraine aid through the November 2024 presidential election. He said he sees that estimate as the "outer limits."
Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, also a strong supporter of Ukraine, said if it were up to him, the number would be closer to $100 billion -- but said he would be open to compromise if Republicans were OK with $60 billion.
The path for a Ukraine aid package is smoother in the Senate than in the House. Over the summer, 71 senators had voted to defeat an amendment to the annual defense-policy bill that would have limited the delivery of Ukraine aid until America's North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies deliver on the alliance's agreement to invest at least 2% of their gross domestic product to military spending. Thirteen Republican senators voted no.
In the House, a Sept. 28 vote showed broad bipartisan support for Ukraine aid -- 311 lawmakers in the 433-member House voted to pass a measure appropriating $300 million in security assistance -- but the number of Republicans opposed made up more than half the GOP conference.
McCarthy voted in favor of the measure, as did Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R., La.), who is now a contender to replace him. Another speaker hopeful, Rep. Jim Jordan (R., Ohio), was among the 117 House Republicans who voted against the aid.
Two days later, in a major setback for pro-Ukraine lawmakers, Congress passed a short-term spending bill that didn't include any Ukraine aid.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) said Ukraine aid remains a priority, but they didn't outline next steps. McConnell said Congress needs more direction from the administration.
Blumenthal said he is in conversations with Graham and other Senate Republicans about solutions, including the addition of a U.S. border security element to a Ukraine aid package.
"Border security is a goal that I have and other Democrats share. So I think there is a potential sweet spot for compromise if border security is something that Republicans require," Blumenthal said.
Graham said there is overwhelming support for Ukraine and U.S. border security in the House, but he warned any border provisions would need to include policy changes to tighten asylum rules.
Republicans have expressed interest in a range of changes to the asylum system, including reinstating former President Donald Trump's Remain in Mexico policy, performing rapid asylum adjudications at the Southern border and narrowing the asylum definition to exclude many of the reasons why migrants claim the protection.
Senate Democrats say they are open to more funding for border security, but warn that linking the Ukraine issue to immigration policy could be fatal for both efforts.
"I want immigration reform to get done. I want more money for the border, " said Sen. Chris Murphy (D., Conn.). "But I get really nervous when people try to tie two difficult things together."